(Or, "Holy shit I hope this works.)
If you're like me, you're mired in a 0-3 start to the fantasy football season, and you're probably starting to doubt your ability to forecast fantasy production. Well let me help you: You were never able to forecast fantasy production. And you know what? Neither can I. In fact, nobody can. If you drafted Phillip Rivers, Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings and Pierre Thomas, you might say you have a solid nucleus to build from. But no. You'd be holding a team that sits 11 out of 12 in a Yahoo league you begin to tell yourself doesn't matter as much as it did to you in August.
But not all is lost.
Its only week 4! And like Kevin Bacon's character in Animal House, "ALL IS WELL!" If you drafted guys like Johnson, Ray Rice, Greg Jennings, MJD, Reggie Wayne, hang in there. These are the guys you can still win with, even after each has had mixed success up to this point. Trust in your draft, and stay the course. For at least one more week.
Week 4 Pickups:
In no particular order, here are some guys that are more than likely available in your 10-12 team leagues. Its a light week for waiver requests, but if you need bye week filler, (Dallas, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Kansas City), here are some of your options:
MARSHAWN LYNCH, RB, BUF: Buffalo is awful, yes, but Lynch is starting to be the every-down compliment to CJ Spiller that Fred Jackson was supposed to be. Grade: Flex, #3 RB
JOHN KUHN, RB, GB: The hell happened to Brandon Jackson? John Kuhn, that's what the hell. He's the better between the tackles runner, and a better receiver than most think. If Green Bay gets ahead and milks clock, or faces 1st and goal from the 3 yard line in, Kuhn, not Jackson, is the guy you want.
BENJARVUS GREEN-ELLIS, RB, NEP: Let me be real clear on this. I don't care who rushes for what in New England. That is a passing offense, and will continue to be such as long as Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker suit up for the Pats. The running game, from a fantasy perspective, only got worse when something or someone named Danny Woodhead rushed for a touchdown as well. I'm letting someone else pick up the "Law Firm" at this point.
RYAN TORAIN, RB, WAS: Both Clinton Portis and Torain each carried the ball 7 times, Portis logging 44 yards, Torain finishing with 46. The Redskins, despite the loss, actually averaged 6.8 yards a carry on 17 attempts. Torain was in Denver with head coach Mike Shanahan, and knows the system the Redskins have installed. Portis just looks old and slow at this point of a great career, and Torain might be the fresh legs the Skins need this week vs. Philly.
MAURICE MORRIS, RB, DET: Rough week, huh? Yeah, this isn't as much of an endorsement of Morris as it is a reflection on my belief that Jahvid Best is really going to go this week vs. Green Bay. I suppose that if Best sits, Mo Morris (a former Seahawk!) is in line for some carries and targets, but he's purely a speculative play, and by no means should you count on him for anything close to Best-like numbers. If you're in a PPR league, keep an eye on Best, and if you have room, or are really desperate, go ahead and add Morris. Just keep your expectations to a minimum. This has 20 yards rushing and 15 yards receiving written all over it.
KEITH TOSTON & KENNETH DARBY, RB, STL: If Steven Jackson doesn't play this week vs. Seattle, and you're looking for a handcuff, Toston is the guy ahead of Darby. He's younger, bigger and is the more effective runner at this point. I'm not certain I would start anybody outside of Mark Clayton or Sam Bradford this week, but if you have Jackson, handcuff him with Toston.
GOLDEN TATE, WR, SEA: Caution! HOMER PICK! Matt Hasselbeck is a creature of habit. Once he finds a receiver he likes, he will generally lean on that guy in 3rd down situations and red zone looks. In his first true stretch of playing time, Tate caught 4 balls for 33 yards. Not Earth-shattering by any means, but in a PPR league, Tate could be the guy Hasselbeck looks to in a pinch. Add in his big play ability, and we could see something like Santana Moss-light towards the end of the season.
OAKLAND WR's: Both Heyward-Bey and Murphy have come to life with Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback. Neither is an elite option, or even a WR#2 at this point, but Murphy in particular can help at the flex and WR#3.
BLAIR WHITE, WR, IND: This guy came off the practice squad to catch a TD, and if Pierre Garcon lingers any further with an injury, he makes for an interesting play down the road of bye weeks. Keep an eye on Garcon before you pull the trigger.
DAVONNE BESS, WR, MIA: With teams surely to focus on Brandon Marshall, Bess will become a flex play for PPR leagues. He's not a guy you want to start every week, but he can help out in the right matchups, like...
CHAD HENNE, QB. MIA: In successive weeks now, we have seen Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick have fantastic outings against the New England Patriots pass defense. You know who the Dolphins play this week? If you own Romo, Henne vs. the Pats just might save you in week 4.
That's all I got. More news tomorrow about lineups and starts and sits.
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