Week 4 Fantasy Football Waiver Claims

(Or, "Holy shit I hope this works.)

If you're like me, you're mired in a 0-3 start to the fantasy football season, and you're probably starting to doubt your ability to forecast fantasy production.  Well let me help you:  You were never able to forecast fantasy production.  And you know what?  Neither can I.  In fact, nobody can.  If you drafted Phillip Rivers, Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings and Pierre Thomas, you might say you have a solid nucleus to build from.  But no.  You'd be holding a team that sits 11 out of 12 in a Yahoo league you begin to tell yourself doesn't matter as much as it did to you in August. 

But not all is lost.

Its only week 4!  And like Kevin Bacon's character in Animal House, "ALL IS WELL!"  If you drafted guys like Johnson, Ray Rice, Greg Jennings, MJD, Reggie Wayne, hang in there.  These are the guys you can still win with, even after each has had mixed success up to this point.  Trust in your draft, and stay the course.  For at least one more week.   

Week 4 Pickups:
In no particular order, here are some guys that are more than likely available in your 10-12 team leagues.  Its a light week for waiver requests, but if you need bye week filler, (Dallas, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Kansas City), here are some of your options:

MARSHAWN LYNCH, RB, BUF:  Buffalo is awful, yes, but Lynch is starting to be the every-down compliment to CJ Spiller that Fred Jackson was supposed to be.  Grade: Flex, #3 RB

JOHN KUHN, RB, GB:  The hell happened to Brandon Jackson?  John Kuhn, that's what the hell.  He's the better between the tackles runner, and a better receiver than most think.  If Green Bay gets ahead and milks clock, or faces 1st and goal from the 3 yard line in, Kuhn, not Jackson, is the guy you want.

BENJARVUS GREEN-ELLIS, RB, NEP:  Let me be real clear on this.  I don't care who rushes for what in New England.  That is a passing offense, and will continue to be such as long as Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker suit up for the Pats.  The running game, from a fantasy perspective, only got worse when something or someone named Danny Woodhead rushed for a touchdown as well. I'm letting someone else pick up the "Law Firm" at this point.

RYAN TORAIN, RB, WAS:  Both Clinton Portis and Torain each carried the ball 7 times, Portis logging 44 yards, Torain finishing with 46.  The Redskins, despite the loss, actually averaged 6.8 yards a carry on 17 attempts.  Torain was in Denver with head coach Mike Shanahan, and knows the system the Redskins have installed.  Portis just looks old and slow at this point of a great career, and Torain might be the fresh legs the Skins need this week vs. Philly. 

MAURICE MORRIS, RB, DET:  Rough week, huh?  Yeah, this isn't as much of an endorsement of Morris as it is a reflection on my belief that Jahvid Best is really going to go this week vs. Green Bay.  I suppose that if Best sits, Mo Morris (a former Seahawk!) is in line for some carries and targets, but he's purely a speculative play, and by no means should you count on him for anything close to Best-like numbers.  If you're in a PPR league, keep an eye on Best, and if you have room, or are really desperate, go ahead and add Morris.  Just keep your expectations to a minimum.  This has 20 yards rushing and 15 yards receiving  written all over it.

KEITH TOSTON & KENNETH DARBY, RB, STL:  If Steven Jackson doesn't play this week vs. Seattle, and you're looking for a handcuff, Toston is the guy ahead of Darby.  He's younger, bigger and is the more effective runner at this point.  I'm not certain I would start anybody outside of Mark Clayton or Sam Bradford this week, but if you have Jackson, handcuff him with Toston.  

GOLDEN TATE, WR, SEA:  Caution!  HOMER PICK!  Matt Hasselbeck is a creature of habit.  Once he finds a receiver he likes, he will generally lean on that guy in 3rd down situations and red zone looks.  In his first true stretch of playing time, Tate caught 4 balls for 33 yards.  Not Earth-shattering by any means, but in a PPR league, Tate could be the guy Hasselbeck looks to in a pinch.  Add in his big play ability, and we could see something like Santana Moss-light towards the end of the season.

OAKLAND WR's:  Both Heyward-Bey and Murphy have come to life with Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback.  Neither is an elite option, or even a WR#2 at this point, but Murphy in particular can help at the flex and WR#3.

BLAIR WHITE, WR, IND:  This guy came off the practice squad to catch a TD, and if Pierre Garcon lingers any further with an injury, he makes for an interesting play down the road of bye weeks.  Keep an eye on Garcon before you pull the trigger.

DAVONNE BESS, WR, MIA:  With teams surely to focus on Brandon Marshall, Bess will become a flex play for PPR leagues.  He's not a guy you want to start every week, but he can help out in the right matchups, like...

CHAD HENNE, QB. MIA:  In successive weeks now, we have seen Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick have fantastic outings against the New England Patriots pass defense.  You know who the Dolphins play this week?  If you own Romo, Henne vs. the Pats just might save you in week 4. 

That's all I got.  More news tomorrow about lineups and starts and sits.




 

Misery Loves Company, Fantasy Football edition

I'm currently in 6 fantasy football leagues, which is probably 5 too many, but what the hell.  I mentioned earlier on this blog that along with fantasy football advice (and I use that term loosely), I would share with you my fantasy teams and their successes and failures. 

So far, I'm staring down the barrel of an 0-2 start in two redraft leagues on Yahoo.  Not cool.  Its not the end of the season, but even a 1-1 start makes you feel somewhat more optimistic about your season. 
Here are my rosters...

YAHOO TEAM #1:
QB Hasselbeck
WR WAYNE
WR S. SMITH (NYG)
WR S MOSS
RB RICE
RB FOSTER
TE Z MILLER (OAK)
BN CRABTREE
BN KOLB
BN HIGHTOWER
BN J. STEWART
BN B. JACKSON (GB)

I went with the starting lineup above as you see it, subbing out Crabtree for Moss.  Its a non-PPR, and one of my mistakes was drafting Smith at WR.  I'm probably going to drop him for either Kevin Walter or D. Thomas in Denver.  Thoughts? 

YAHOO TEAM #2
QB RIVERS
WR A. JOHNSON
WR. G. JENNINGS
RB PIERRE THOMAS
RB JONATHON STEWART
RB/WR  DEVONNE BESS
TE Z MILLER

BN PORTIS
BN M. WILLIAMS (SEA)
BN D. MASON
BN J. FORSETT
BN. V. JACKSON (SD)
BN K. BRITT

I had a great game out of Jennings last week, nothing from Johnson.  This week?  AJ shows up HUGE, Jennings goes scoreless against Buffalo.  My opposition has Frank Gore going tonight, while I have Thomas.  Oh, and I'm down about 17 points.  I've got a waiver request in for Mike Thomas, and I would drop Bess in return.  Thoughts? 

So, I like both teams, and I still think I can be competitive, but Christ does 0-2 look bad.  If you're in the same boat, take heart.  Its early, your team probably isn't as bad as you think it is.  Fantasy Football entails a helluva lotta luck.  Not only do your players have to play well, but you have no control whatsoever on how your oppostion's players perform.  Its a long season, and together we will get through it.  I've got some more post-mordem to dissect, but I'll be back tomorrow with some early lines on who I like in week 3, and who gets the start  on my own fantasy teams.  God help us all...

A New Era in Seahawks Football...

Holy Shit!  We're 1-0!!!

Fantasy Quick Hits: Saints/Vikings (Or, "thank God we had beer.")

Things to take away from the 14-9 Saints win over the Vikings:


1. Drew Brees will have better weeks. The Vikes still possess a good front 7, and they were able to keep the passing game in check after the opening drive by the Saints.

2. AP will have better days. Favre's ability to still make plays down the field should help Peterson this year.

3. Shiancoe will take advantage of the Rice void, and should remain Brett's main option in the red zone.

4. Trade Devry Henderson NOW. The Saints WR corps, barring injury, should continue to frustrate owners. Someone else will certainly top the Saints receiving board next week, so sell Henderson now

if you can.

5. Sleepers? Albert Young has an official head start on Toby Gerhart for AP handcuff duty. If anybody spells #28, its going to be Young.



We will have fantasy starts and sits, plus we will share with you our own fantasy lineups so you can track our progress as well. The reason being, if we don't believe our own stuff, why should you?  With that in mind, each week we will be telling you who WE are starting in our fantasy leagues. 



Thanks for reading!

Things I Learned, MIAMI/ATLANTA, August 31, 2010

A quickie fantasy glance at MIAMI-ATLANTA.  A game that jumps off the page better than it does your flatscreen.

MIAMI:  Yes its the pre-season, but Ronnie Brown getting 9 yards on 8 carries? Ricky Williams getting 5 yards on 4 attempts?  Miami's offensive line will have 3 new starters between the tackles this year, making the run game a work in progress.  I still think Brown and Williams have value, especially Brown in PPR leagues.  But neither should be counted on for anything more than a 3rd RB position or bye-week filler.  

ATLANTA:  Of the 34 receiving targets handed out by the Falcons QB's, 12 went to Roddy White, and zero went to Michael Turner.  This says more about Turner than White.  If you're picking late in a 10 or 12 team league, Turner is a guy I might go first round, then immediately take 2 WR's in rounds 2 and 3.  He's a rare workhorse in a running back by committee NFL, but he won't help you in the passing game.   

What I Learned...

AUGUST 26 PRESEASON FANTASY NOTES




Posted by Chango for Sweepthetaco.com

August 30, 2010



RAMS 35, PATRIOTS 36

What we learned:

-Rams WR Danny Amendola saw action early and often from Sam Bradford, netting 6 targets, 5 REC’s and 50 yds on the night. It should be noted that each of the targets were short routes, and for a rookie QB looking for a friend, "White Chocolate" might emerge as someone to target in PPR leagues in the 12-13 round range of your drafts, especially with the season-ending injury to WR Donnie Avery.



-Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski had three targets, caught all 3, and finished with 66 yards and 2 scores. Nice stat line, and he was in on the Pats no-huddle offense in the 3rd. You’re not drafting him, since he’s at best the 4th passing option for the Pats (Moss, Welker, Faulk), but a guy like this points out that you can wait on the TE position in your draft, or hit the waiver wire, and still have success in your league.



COLTS 24, PACKERS 59

What we learned: (other than the Colts don’t give a damn about the preseason!)

The Colts don’t care about… oh yeah, we covered that. With Joseph Addai coming out ok with his concussion, he looks to be a guy we will take a chance on one more year. A lot of talk has centered on Donald Brown eventually passing Addai for the #1 spot. But Brown has yet to justify the expectations, and Addai can be a great value in PPR leagues as a RB 2. Also, consider passing on Peyton Manning. Great name, yes, but based on ESPN.com's 2009 scoring system, taking Manning over Donovan McNabb would have netted you only 3 more points per week last season. If you have him, splitting the stock for a WR/RB combo you can start every week.



Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. Yup, that’s about it. The guy has looked great so far, and worthy of breaking The Taco’s rule about waiting on QB’s. TE Jermichael Finley scored a TD, showing the depth at the TE position. Finley is a guy you can grab around round 6 or 7, after you draft 5 WR’s and RB’s. Finally, a PPR note: 16 different Packers caught a pass. Ryan Grant was not among them. I still like Grant as a RB2 in PPR, but only if you can pair him with a better PPR option.

Chango's Nachos

Go to sweepthetaco.com for my latest posting.